new zealand horse racing - racebase performance

1) Jockeys, trainers and other industry professionals who use it as a database and analysis tool.
2) Punters who use it as a database and analysis tool.
3) Punters who use it as the basis for mechanical betting systems.

All 3 groups should find the predictions useful. The statistics presented here should help to give an indication of their success although they are mainly aimed at those who wish to use RaceBase as a punting tool.

In RaceBase there are 19 different factors the program uses to award points when making its predictions. The user is able to alter the amount of emphasis placed on each factor and consequently the way the points are awarded. In effect a user can input his/her own prediction equations. RaceBase now comes with 2 already pre-programmed alternative settings. The Margins method is the setting that over the past 8 years has produced more winners. This method has the best strike rate. The Value method, over the same period, has shown to produce less winners than the Margins method, but because it gives higher ratings to horses lower down in the weights, it tends to show a better profit. The predictions were last improved on February 18th 2001 and subsequently introduced with RaceBase release Version 01.02 or higher. Statistics up to February 17th 2001 are therefore retrospective only, and represent what would have happened if you had put $1 to win on every top rated runner if the new predictions had been applied. They should be the same predictions you will get when doing analysis in the Archive Fields module of the RaceBase program.

The table below represents the performances of the top rated runner in each of the methods described above between 27th October 1997 and 28th February 2007. The only races that are left out are races where more than 1/5 of the starters in a race are horses that are having their 1st start at a totalisator meeting (eg 3 first starters in a 10 horse field).

You can considerably improve on these performances by narrowing down your selections and betting only when certain criteria are met. This can include things like considering the horse ages, combining the predictions with good time ratings or looking at the dividends on offer. From time to time statistics are posted to the RaceBase e-mail list that may help you with this. If you subscribe to RaceBase, you can also do this type of analysis for yourself. You are able to do predictions back to October 1997, determine profitable selection criteria, work out systems, and even formulate and use your own ratings equations.

Races where more than 1/5th of the total starters are horses having their first start at a totalisator meeting have been excluded from the following statistics.

The statistics below are more comprehensive compared to those above in that :

2) They include all races where there are at least 3 horses with any form (ie at least 3 horses that have had at least 1 previous start). This means that only 2 or 3 races (mainly 2 year old races) are excluded from each month.

3) The statistics are for only the race predictions that were actually out in the market place as subscribers had them and had they used the MARGINS or VALUE prediction methods.

MARGINS METHOD	Races	Wins	Win Dividends	Strike Rate	Profit
Apr 01	225	54	$231.30	24.0%	+2.8%
May 01	252	73	$295.55	29.0%	+17.3%
Jun 01	240	54	$236.65	22.5%	-1.4%
Jul 01	181	59	$200.10	32.6%	+10.6%
Aug 01	192	56	$205.40	29.2%	+7.0%
Sep 01	232	80	$305.05	34.5%	+31.5%
Oct 01	219	62	$276.85	28.3%	+26.4%
Nov 01	234	61	$232.40	26.1%	-0.7%
Dec 01	273	71	$274.80	26.0%	+0.7%
Jan 02	289	65	$218.30	22.5%	-24.5%
Feb 02	177	48	$214.90	27.1%	+21.4%
Mar 02	260	75	$285.10	28.9%	+9.7%
Apr 02	233	60	$223.15	25.8%	-4.2%
May 02	227	52	$199.10	22.9%	-12.3%
Jun 02	239	56	$231.60	23.4%	-3.1%
Jul 02	179	42	$164.35	23.5%	-8.2%
Aug 02	197	49	$166.40	24.9%	-15.5%
Sep 02	228	71	$256.30	31.1%	+12.4%
Oct 02	247	65	$292.20	26.3%	+18.3%
Nov 02	262	68	$266.00	26.0%	+1.5%
Dec 02	276	70	$244.30	25.4%	-11.5%
Jan 03	270	70	$280.55	25.9%	+3.9%
Feb 03	185	51	$197.55	27.6%	+6.8%
Mar 03	233	66	$223.90	28.3%	-3.9%
Apr 03	256	64	$288.95	25.0%	+12.9%
May 03	236	67	$282.25	28.4%	+19.6%
Jun 03	211	48	$198.65	22.7%	-6.8%
Jul 03	190	50	$172.85	26.3%	-9.0%
Aug 03	180	51	$195.05	28.3%	+8.4%
Sep 03	200	42	$158.50	21.0%	-20.7%
Oct 03	244	59	$226.45	24.2%	-7.2%
Nov 03	271	63	$269.65	23.2%	-0.5%
Dec 03	273	77	$303.75	28.2%	+11.3%
Jan 04	294	83	$296.80	28.2%	+1.0%
Feb 04	198	60	$240.85	30.3%	+21.6%
Mar 04	218	59	$256.05	27.1%	+17.5%
Apr 04	245	68	$252.35	27.8%	+3.0%
May 04	234	64	$294.80	27.4%	+26.0%
Jun 04	219	61	$254.60	27.9%	+16.3%
Jul 04	199	51	$193.20	25.6%	-2.9%
Aug 04	180	42	$152.20	23.3%	-15.4%
Sep 04	231	52	$190.20	22.5%	-17.7%
Oct 04	270	67	$275.50	24.8%	+2.0%
Nov 04	245	56	$239.10	22.9%	-2.4%
Dec 04	273	69	$267.00	25.3%	-2.2%
Jan 05	279	74	$293.05	26.5%	+5.0%
Feb 05	187	54	$185.20	28.9%	-1.0%
Mar 05	252	67	$241.55	26.6%	-4.2%
Apr 05	252	72	$281.35	28.6%	+11.7%
May 05	207	46	$191.05	22.2%	-7.7%
Jun 05	213	56	$253.60	26.3%	+19.1%
Jul 05	205	53	$197.30	25.9%	-3.8%
Aug 05	177	51	$203.45	28.8%	+14.9%
Sep 05	238	55	$218.70	23.1%	-8.1%
Oct 05	248	53	$190.90	21.4%	-23.0%
Nov 05	264	61	$247.15	23.1%	-6.4%
Dec 05	298	81	$328.05	27.2%	+10.1%
Jan 06	286	66	$251.30	23.1%	-12.1%
Feb 06	195	58	$209.55	29.7%	+7.5%
Mar 06	228	62	$265.55	27.2%	+16.5%
Apr 06	249	70	$310.95	28.1%	+24.9%
May 06	227	53	$232.10	23.3%	+2.3%
Jun 06	204	50	$203.80	24.5%	-0.1%
Jul 06	224	59	$217.30	26.3%	-3.0%
Aug 06	162	38	$179.25	23.5%	+10.7%
Sep 06	252	69	$303.65	27.4%	+20.5%
Oct 06	234	60	$234.60	25.6%	+0.3%
Nov 06	258	67	$278.00	26.0%	+7.8%
Dec 06	285	76	$294.40	26.7%	+3.3%
Jan 07	283	73	$276.60	25.8%	-2.3%
Feb 07	207	54	$193.40	26.1%	-6.6%
TOTAL 1st Picks	16531	4309	$17010.35	26.1%	+2.9%
TOTAL 2nd Picks	16531	2826	$15638.65	17.1%	-5.4%
TOTAL 3rd Picks	16531	2188	$15532.45	13.2%	-6.0%

VALUE METHOD	Races	Wins	Win Dividends	Strike Rate	Profit
Apr 01	225	53	$238.35	23.6%	+5.9%
May 01	252	63	$252.85	25.0%	+0.3%
Jun 01	240	45	$170.65	18.8%	-28.9%
Jul 01	181	63	$232.10	34.8%	+28.2%
Aug 01	192	56	$214.10	29.2%	+11.5%
Sep 01	232	77	$321.70	33.2%	+38.7%
Oct 01	219	57	$256.10	26.0%	+16.9%
Nov 01	234	62	$260.25	26.5%	+11.2%
Dec 01	273	65	$277.10	23.8%	+1.5%
Jan 02	289	61	$210.75	21.1%	-27.1%
Feb 02	177	47	$194.70	26.6%	+10.0%
Mar 02	260	67	$260.55	25.8%	+0.2%
Apr 02	233	50	$223.15	21.5%	-4.2%
May 02	227	51	$217.35	22.5%	-4.3%
Jun 02	239	48	$213.70	20.1%	-10.6%
Jul 02	179	42	$180.85	23.5%	+1.0%
Aug 02	197	48	$186.65	24.4%	-5.3%
Sep 02	228	66	$220.10	29.9%	-3.5%
Oct 02	247	66	$325.10	26.7%	+31.6
Nov 02	262	69	$287.30	26.3%	+9.7
Dec 02	276	67	$254.55	24.3%	-7.8%
Jan 03	270	64	$261.60	23.7%	-3.1%
Feb 03	185	49	$190.15	26.5%	+2.8%
Mar 03	233	63	$255.45	27.0%	+9.6%
Apr 03	256	66	$297.35	25.8%	+16.2%
May 03	236	62	$263.45	26.3%	+11.6%
Jun 03	211	49	$228.75	23.2%	+8.4%
Jul 03	190	46	$157.90	24.2%	-16.9%
Aug 03	180	46	$180.90	25.6%	+0.5%
Sep 03	200	37	$152.80	18.5%	-23.6%
Oct 03	244	52	$192.15	21.3%	-21.2%
Nov 03	271	49	$205.00	18.1%	-24.3%
Dec 03	273	67	$300.15	24.5%	+10.0%
Jan 04	294	79	$303.05	26.9%	+3.1%
Feb 04	198	56	$224.65	28.3%	+13.5%
Mar 04	218	52	$202.40	23.9%	-6.2%
Apr 04	245	66	$251.80	26.6%	+2.8%
May 04	234	64	$287.55	27.4%	+22.9%
Jun 04	219	57	$249.75	26.0%	+14.0%
Jul 04	199	45	$163.85	22.6%	-17.7%
Aug 04	180	43	$173.75	23.9%	-3.5%
Sep 04	231	50	$197.90	21.6%	-14.3%
Oct 04	270	68	$284.40	25.2%	+5.3%
Nov 04	245	50	$230.85	20.4%	-5.8%
Dec 04	273	68	$311.05	24.9%	+13.9%
Jan 05	279	69	$276.60	24.7%	-0.9%
Feb 05	187	50	$173.55	26.7%	-7.2%
Mar 05	252	66	$255.20	26.2%	+1.3%
Apr 05	252	69	$280.45	27.4%	+11.3%
May 05	207	46	$200.35	22.2%	-3.2%
Jun 05	213	55	$254.70	25.8%	+19.6%
Jul 05	205	58	$249.90	28.3%	+21.9%
Aug 05	177	58	$278.40	32.8%	+57.3%
Sep 05	238	54	$208.60	22.7%	-12.4%
Oct 05	248	53	$195.95	21.4%	-21.0%
Nov 05	264	61	$258.25	23.1%	-2.2%
Dec 05	298	75	$331.55	25.2%	+11.3%
Jan 06	286	59	$241.70	20.6%	-15.5%
Feb 06	195	62	$242.40	31.8%	+24.3%
Mar 06	228	60	$270.45	26.3%	+18.6%
Apr 06	249	64	$286.65	25.7%	+15.1%
May 06	227	56	$251.65	24.7%	+10.9%
Jun 06	204	49	$228.80	24.0%	+12.2%
Jul 06	224	65	$244.15	29.0%	+9.0%
Aug 06	162	37	$171.10	22.8%	+5.6%
Sep 06	252	49	$185.40	19.4%	-26.4%
Oct 06	234	58	$251.00	24.8%	+7.3%
Nov 06	258	61	$299.65	23.6%	+16.1%
Dec 06	285	68	$277.30	23.9%	-2.7%
Jan 07	283	74	$310.00	26.1%	+9.5%
Feb 07	207	49	$186.40	23.7%	-10.0%
TOTAL 1st Picks	16531	4096	$16976.80	24.8%	+2.7%
TOTAL 2nd Picks	16531	2771	$15800.30	16.8%	-4.4%
TOTAL 3rd Picks	16531	2183	$15533.75	13.2%	-6.0%

In MARGINS method, RaceBase therefore correctly selected the winner 26.1% of the time over the past 5 years. 43.3% of all winners were in the top 2 rated runners, and 56.5% of all winners were in the top 3 picks. The average human punter loses 16% of all money invested. Past RaceBase statistics show that the RaceBase computer program has performed considerably better than the average human.

Although the statistics presented here are accurate, RaceBase should not be viewed as a get rich quick scheme. It is not proven that the predictions will continue at the same level in the future. I prefer to think of the predictions as only part of the program and as an aid along with the other database capabilities, although there are some, including myself, who use them as the basis for a mechanical punting system.

RaceBase offers a free and uncensored e-mail discussion group with open exchange between subscribers. By default, there cannot therefore be any manipulation or misrepresentation of the RaceBase prediction performance statistics.

The ratings are for the use of the registered subscriber only. RaceBase retains copyright control of the predictions (ratings) at all times. Forwarding of upcoming RaceBase race ratings to non-subscribers is strictly forbidden.

The statistics on this page are accurate but they are only a reflection of the past performance of the ratings. We have no control over their future performance. Subscribers should treat it as a gamble. Use of the ratings are at the subscribers discretion and RaceBase forfeits any responsibility for any losses that may occur.